{
  "question_id": "W160",
  "slug": "us-china-suspend-large-training-runs",
  "title": "The US and China both suspend training above a threshold",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W160",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An effective nationwide suspension above a definite common threshold can qualify even if the threshold is above all existing models and no training run is actually interrupted; a safety-testing or deployment restriction alone cannot.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1368
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W160",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0751
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2364
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W160",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An immediately effective national prohibition on training above a definite, jointly accepted threshold (compute or capability) counts even if framed as a permanent red line, whereas vague principles (e.g., keeping AI under human control), incident/notification channels, deployment limits, and voluntary pauses by named companies do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0691
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W160",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both the American and Chinese governments reject slowing artificial intelligence development, and their new dialogue covers incident alerts and misuse rather than training limits. A jointly announced, already-effective halt on training powerful models above an agreed limit would need a historic reversal, likely after a major disaster or under a new American administration after 2029. I put the chance near 5% by the end of 2031. A serious disaster hitting both countries would most raise it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0505
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W160",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both governments currently reject slowing AI. Trump has called catastrophe fears a hoax, and Beijing calls pause proposals fearmongering. Their new joint dialogue covers incident reporting, not limits on training, and the bar here (both nations confirming nationwide pauses under a shared limit) is very high. The chance grows slowly over five years, mainly through a serious AI disaster or a new US president in 2029. A catastrophe forcing an emergency joint pause would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0646
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}