{
  "question_id": "W150",
  "slug": "us-china-run-jointly-designed-ai",
  "title": "The US and China run a jointly designed AI or jointly designed chips",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W150",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.060769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129822
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W150",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00713
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05756
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07721
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W150",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Literal reading: requires official US federal executive and PRC central-government statements committing both to run a jointly designed frontier system or install jointly designed chips with hardware-enforced model-authorization (prevention, not detection); dialogues, incident channels, or joint verification R&D without deployment commitments do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W150",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both the American and Chinese governments currently reject limits on artificial intelligence. Their new dialogue only exchanges views and adds an incident hotline, and even the boldest proposals stop at pauses, testing and inspections. A jointly built system, or locked chips installed in both countries, would be unprecedented, so I put the chance at about 2% through 2031. A major disaster pushing both leaders toward a binding, verifiable treaty would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W150",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The United States and China recently agreed to start talks on artificial intelligence risks and an incident hotline, and President Trump has refused to combine efforts with China. Jointly building and running one leading system, or installing shared chips that block unapproved models, would go far beyond any past arms deal, so I put it near 2% by 2031. A major disaster or leap toward superhuman machines pushing both governments into a grand bargain would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}