{
  "question_id": "W140",
  "slug": "us-china-name-a-prohibited-capability",
  "title": "The US and China name an AI capability both will not build",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W140",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A mutual prohibition on autonomous cyberattacks against nuclear command networks counts as a distinct non-launch behaviour; endorsing draft negotiating elements or recommendations without an undertaking governing both governments does not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1971
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.39
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4949
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.532
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W140",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count an explicit mutual prohibition on AI autonomously initiating cyberattacks against nuclear command networks as distinct from nuclear-launch control, but not a generic endorsement of international humanitarian law or elements proposed for a future instrument.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3682
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4962
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6864
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W140",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only an express joint (or explicitly parallel) undertaking covering each government's own activities not to develop or deploy a specifically named AI function/use (or a human-control requirement over an expressly identified autonomous behaviour); incident channels, dialogues, non-state-misuse pledges, generic 'AI under human control' language, negotiation mandates, and multilateral texts without an express undertaking by both do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.327
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W140",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No joint pledge of this kind exists yet: the new American-Chinese artificial intelligence dialogue meeting in November focuses on incident reporting, not bans, and President Trump rejects limits on the technology. The biggest near-term chance is a November United Nations weapons conference endorsing agreed rules for autonomous weapons, which may not count. Later chances rest mostly on the next American administration. A clear joint statement forswearing a specific use, such as building bioweapons, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.427
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}