{
  "question_id": "W142",
  "slug": "us-china-limit-frontier-training",
  "title": "The US and China agree to limit frontier AI training",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W142",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1987
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2365
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W142",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1907
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2535
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W142",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a definite agreed restriction on frontier training (compute/size caps, pause or threshold-conditioned moratorium, or an expressly defined speed limit on automated AI-R&D/training pace) counts; incident channels, dialogues, pre-deployment testing, capability-specific bans (e.g., bioweapons) or 'human control' principles do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1246
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W142",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The US and China have agreed only to talk about AI risks and to set up an incident hotline. Both leaders publicly reject slowing AI development: Trump says he won't \"put on brakes,\" and Beijing calls slowdown calls a Cold War ploy. So the chance is very low near term, rising modestly later with possible AI crises and a new US president in 2029. A major AI disaster pushing both sides toward an emergency mutual pause would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W142",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Both governments currently reject slowing artificial intelligence. Their September summit created only a dialogue and an incident hotline, and the US and China have never agreed to limit a strategic technology. I put the chance near zero this year, about 3.5% by the end of 2028, and about 10% by the end of 2031. The shift that would most change this is a major AI-caused disaster that pushes both leaders toward a mutual pause, or a new US president who makes such a deal a priority.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0995
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}