{
  "question_id": "W148",
  "slug": "us-china-joint-frontier-project",
  "title": "The US and China set up a joint frontier AI project",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W148",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020336
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026214
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098656
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.124544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133298
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W148",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08353
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W148",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The United States and China have only agreed to hold talks and open a hotline about artificial intelligence incidents, and President Trump has ruled out combining the two countries' efforts while America leads. Both American parties want to keep cutting-edge technology from China, so a jointly run project to build world-leading systems by 2031 is very unlikely. A major disaster that scared both governments into sharing control would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W148",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a signed US–China agreement setting up a joint frontier AI project at about 0.5% before 2029 and about 2% by the end of 2031. The September 2026 summit produced only a dialogue and an incident hotline, and Trump explicitly refused to \"integrate\" with China. Even the boldest US proposals seek limits and inspections, not building models together. A severe AI disaster leading both governments to merge development efforts would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}