{
  "question_id": "W134",
  "slug": "us-china-exchange-of-fire",
  "title": "US and Chinese forces exchange fire, killing a service member",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W134",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1764
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2118
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W134",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20243
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W134",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 1 in 10 by the end of 2031 and close to zero this year. American and Chinese forces have not traded deadly fire since the Vietnam War era. The two governments are in a truce, with more leader summits planned, and US officials think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is unlikely. The likeliest route to \"yes\" is a later war over Taiwan that draws in American forces. Chinese military moves after Taiwan's January 2028 election would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0854
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0909
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0963
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W134",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The US and Chinese militaries have not exchanged deadly fire in nearly 60 years, and the two governments are currently in a détente with more summits planned. So the chance is tiny in the near term. Most of the risk is a Taiwan war in which the US fights, which I see as more plausible after Taiwan's 2028 election. Overall I estimate about 1% by end-2027 and 8% by end-2031. A Chinese blockade or invasion of Taiwan would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}