{
  "question_id": "W141",
  "slug": "us-china-exchange-evaluations",
  "title": "The US and China agree to exchange safety evaluations",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W141",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3929
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5098
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W141",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5445
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W141",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 1% by the end of 2026, rising to about 18% by the end of 2031. In September, Washington and Beijing agreed only to hold talks and open an incident hotline. President Trump has publicly refused to \"open up\" American AI to China, and neither side's plans for November include swapping test results. A serious AI crisis that hits both countries, or a new US administration more willing to negotiate with China, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W141",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "In September 2026, Washington and Beijing agreed only to hold talks and set up an incident hotline on advanced artificial intelligence. Neither government has offered to share safety test results or to let the other side test its models. President Trump says a country that is ahead should not \"open it up.\" I put the chance at about 2% by the end of 2026, rising to about 20% by 2031. A firm commitment to share results or allow testing at November's Shenzhen talks would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}