{
  "question_id": "W114",
  "slug": "us-china-blame-each-other-for-datacentre-sabotage",
  "title": "The US or China blames the other for sabotaging AI infrastructure",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W114",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count collateral or defensive interruption of operating AI compute, but require the official record—not inference from the operator’s AI business—to establish that connection and the other government’s responsibility.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3963
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4659
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W114",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5357
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W114",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only an official US federal or PRC government publication that names the other state (or actors it directs or sponsors) as responsible for a specific incident that actually damaged or interrupted computing at an identified AI datacentre or a frontier training run; espionage, attempts, pre-positioning and chatbot front-end outages not tied to underlying compute do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0647
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W114",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither government has ever officially blamed the other for a cyberattack that actually damaged or shut down anything, let alone an AI data centre. Their accusations describe spying or only \"attempted\" sabotage, and the two sides are now in a cautious truce with a new channel for AI incidents. Rising AI stakes and the risk of a Taiwan conflict still leave roughly a one-in-ten chance by 2031. A war, or open sabotage of AI facilities, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0706
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1053
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W114",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The two governments often accuse each other of hacking, but in over a decade neither has officially said the other actually damaged or shut down a facility, let alone an AI data centre. Relations are currently in a truce, which keeps near-term chances very low, but they rise slowly as AI becomes more strategic. I put it at about 9% by the end of 2031. A military crisis over Taiwan would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}