{
  "question_id": "W112",
  "slug": "us-china-ai-hotline",
  "title": "The US and China set up an AI crisis hotline",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "resolved": {
      "date": "2026-09-26",
      "source": "https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202609/t20260926_12031616.shtml",
      "note": "China's foreign ministry published the leaders' eight-point consensus on 26 September; point 7 records that the two sides agreed to establish a communication channel for AI incidents. The White House fact sheet of 25 September records the same agreement. The later of the two statements sets the resolution date."
    },
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W112",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3682
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.54
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7294
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W112",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I interpret the separately announced bilateral channel for AI/SI incidents as a standing incident-response mechanism satisfying the urgent-communication function without published operating procedures, and treat the US term SI as referring to AI systems.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.99
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.9925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.99325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.993925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.994533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.995079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.995571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.996014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.996413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.996771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.997094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.997385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.997646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.997882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.998094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.998284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.998456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.99861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.998749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.998874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.998987
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}