{
  "question_id": "W246",
  "slug": "us-cancer-death-rate-below-70",
  "title": "The US cancer death rate falls below 70 per 100,000",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W246",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00019099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00024098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00044093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00064084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00084071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00104054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00154002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00203925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00253823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00303696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00373484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00443222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00512912
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W246",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005596
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W246",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The US cancer death rate, adjusted for the population's age mix, is about 137 to 139 deaths per 100,000 and falls roughly 1.5% a year. Going below 70 means halving it within about five years. At past rates that would take over four decades. The only realistic routes are a reporting error or an unprecedented medical breakthrough. A sudden, widely used cure that made cancer deaths drop sharply in the quarterly data would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W246",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The latest official US cancer death rate is about 138 per 100,000, and it has been falling about 1.5 to 2 percent a year. Getting below 70 by 2031 means cutting it roughly in half in about six years, about five times faster than the fastest drop ever recorded. Reporting delays also mean only data through about mid-2031 can count. The development that would most change this forecast is a cure that works across most cancers, rolled out nationwide by about 2029.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00224
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}