{
  "question_id": "W245",
  "slug": "us-cancer-death-rate-below-115",
  "title": "The US cancer death rate falls below 115 per 100,000",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W245",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002907
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021813
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057574
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102276
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W245",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027968
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09013
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W245",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only the total-population (both sexes combined) age-adjusted cancer rate counts, for observation periods ending after 2026-09-16; female-only or other subgroup rates (the female rate may fall below 115 within a few years) do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W245",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The official cancer death rate, adjusted for population aging, is about 134 per 100,000 for 2025 and is falling roughly 2% a year. That puts it near 122 in 2030, the latest year likely to be published by the end of 2031. Getting below 115 would need declines about twice as fast as any on record. What would most change this is several years of drops above 3% a year, or another large upward revision of population estimates for older people.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}