{
  "question_id": "W118",
  "slug": "us-allows-blackwell-sales-to-china",
  "title": "The US authorises Blackwell-class GPU sales to China",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W118",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8536
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8713
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W118",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I exclude desktop-workstation GPUs such as the RTX PRO 5500 even if rack-mounted, and require explicit confirmation of granted US authorisation or a US no-licence-required determination rather than a seller's statement of export compliance.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8411
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W118",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Uncontrolled products sold without a licence (e.g., the workstation-branded RTX PRO 5500) and licences for Chinese firms' use outside China do not resolve; YES needs a published US licence grant/final authorising measure (or explicit US no-licence determination) for a Blackwell-or-later datacentre/server-marketed NVIDIA GPU for delivery to mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W118",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a one-in-three chance that the US authorises sales of Nvidia's Blackwell-or-newer data-centre chips to China by end-2031, and under 1% by end-2026. Today only older H200 chips are licensed, and US officials tightened Blackwell controls through 2026. Nvidia's chief plans to lobby for Blackwell sales in early 2027, and the administration has reversed itself before. A presidential decision to allow a scaled-down Blackwell for China would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.338
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W118",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Washington still bars Nvidia's newest chip generation (Blackwell and later) from China. Officials have called these chips national \"crown jewels,\" Congress may write the ban into law, and Nvidia says it has no approved data-centre product for China. Over five years, as Blackwell ages and the president keeps striking deals with China, some limited approval becomes plausible. The development that would most change this forecast is whether this year's defence bill writes the Blackwell export ban into law.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}