{
  "question_id": "W108",
  "slug": "universal-income-at-poverty-line",
  "title": "A G20 country pays everyone an income at the poverty line",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W108",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056002
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W108",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05515
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W108",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "YES requires a completed nationwide recurring payment round at or above the official one-adult poverty line for every adult category; one-off dividends (e.g., the proposed $5,000 Trump dividend), means-tested grants, and subnational pilots are excluded.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W108",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 1% by the end of 2031 and close to zero before 2028. No G20 country pays all adults a regular no-strings income of any size. Paying every adult the official poverty line would cost about 3 to 30 percent of national income, and current proposals are one-off checks, pilots, or programs for the poor. The biggest change would be artificial intelligence causing mass job losses while boosting tax revenue, which would push a large country toward an ongoing income for all adults.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W108",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy pays every adult a regular, no-strings income near its poverty line, and none has a law or budget to start one. Even the boldest current ideas, like a proposed one-time $5,000 US payment or South Korea's planned basic income, fall far short. The small chance comes mainly from artificial intelligence causing sudden mass job losses. A government answering such losses with poverty-level payments for everyone would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}