{
  "question_id": "W63",
  "slug": "uk-law-to-direct-or-halt-a-lab",
  "title": "The UK gives ministers power to direct or halt a frontier lab",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W63",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3245
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3968
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6403
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W63",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count an AI-specific ministerial licensing, suspension or binding safety-direction power over UK model availability, but not a general rule-making power or operational powers vested solely in an independent regulator.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5677
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W63",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An Act provision that expressly authorises AI-specific ministerial direction/shutdown/access-restriction powers (including via regulations under the Act, i.e. conditional on statutory procedure) counts; general national-security direction powers in the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill without AI-specific text, and powers held only by an independent regulator or limited to downstream users, do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.409
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W63",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Britain's government says it will add AI safety amendments to its cyber security bill this month. Peers from several parties also want ministers to have an emergency shutdown power, so a qualifying law could pass by early 2027. If that bill ends up with only reporting and safety duties, a later AI law is possible but far from certain. The exact wording of the government's amendments, due before the 26 October Lords debate, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.46
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.535
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}