{
  "question_id": "W221",
  "slug": "uber-majority-driverless",
  "title": "Most Uber trips worldwide have no human driver",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W221",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004771
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00994
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048899
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W221",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031564
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047958
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W221",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00259
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W221",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Self-driving cars now provide well under 1% of Uber's rides. Uber itself expects them to stay a small share for many years, with human drivers serving most towns, suburbs and developing markets. For more than half of Uber's rides worldwide to be driverless by 2031, it would need nearly a million such cars on its network, many times what partners have committed. What would most change this is a sudden worldwide jump in cheap, approved robotaxis.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00277
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W221",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Driverless cars currently provide well under 1% of Uber's rides worldwide, and Uber's own chief executive says a robot majority is 15 to 20 years away. A majority by 2031 would take roughly a million driverless cars on Uber, including in Brazil and India. Only about 120,000 have been promised so far. What would most change this forecast is Uber reporting driverless rides growing several-fold every year across many countries.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}