{
  "question_id": "W124",
  "slug": "tsmc-taiwan-fabs-halted-90-days",
  "title": "TSMC's Taiwan fabs stop for 90 days over military action",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W124",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.030887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089308
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W124",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086003
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W124",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "YES requires a TSMC-authored statement confirming every TSMC-operated Taiwan wafer fab was stopped at the same time for at least 90 consecutive days through a stated date, and naming a military, blockade or quarantine cause. Because a stoppage would have had to start by about 2 Oct 2026 to resolve YES in 2026, the 2026 horizons are treated as effectively zero.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W124",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Taiwan's biggest chipmaker is running normally and just reported record sales, and no blockade or war is under way. A yes answer needs a Chinese blockade or attack severe enough to halt every one of its Taiwan factories for three straight months, plus an explicit company statement confirming it. I put that at under 3% over five years. China actually starting a blockade or strikes on Taiwan would change this the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W124",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "For this to happen, China would have to invade or fully blockade Taiwan. Every TSMC chip plant there would then have to sit idle for 90 days in a row, and TSMC would have to say so publicly. US officials and betting markets think an attack is unlikely before 2028, and TSMC kept running through this year's Iran war. I put the chance at about 2.5% by the end of 2031. A Chinese blockade cutting off Taiwan's fuel imports would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0245
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}