{
  "question_id": "W46",
  "slug": "treaty-names-an-ai-as-party",
  "title": "An international agreement names an AI as party or guarantor",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W46",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135641
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W46",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00917
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03853
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12169
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W46",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An AI designated only as a monitoring/verification/analysis tool (even if central to verification) does not qualify; YES requires an officially published concluded text expressly naming an AI system/AI body as a party in its own right or as guarantor/enforcer responsible for ensuring observance; AIs acting merely as a government's representative do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W46",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No international agreement has ever named an AI as a party or guarantor. Current US–China talks and treaty proposals stress keeping humans in control, with human inspectors and kill switches. The small, slowly rising chance reflects very fast AI progress, which could lead to AI-enforced arms-control deals around 2029–2031, plus possible government publicity stunts. A treaty text giving an AI system formal responsibility for enforcing compliance would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W46",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No international agreement has ever named an AI as a party or guarantor, and none is being negotiated. Even the boldest current proposals for US–China AI deals rely on human inspectors and hardware checks, which the rules say do not count. The main route to yes is a late-decade deal, made once AI is better than humans, that hands enforcement to a jointly built AI. Governments formally proposing such an AI enforcer in treaty talks would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0475
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}