{
  "question_id": "W188",
  "slug": "transfers-35-percent-of-personal-income",
  "title": "Government transfers reach 35% of US personal income",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W188",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029705
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078535
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W188",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058908
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W188",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W188",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Government benefits are about 19% of Americans' personal income now. The highest ever was 27% during COVID relief in early 2021. Reaching 35% would need roughly $1.8 trillion of extra payments in a single quarter, more than Trump's proposed $5,000 checks, which would get to about 31% and depend on Republicans keeping Congress, which betting markets give about a 10% chance. The development that would most change this is a catastrophe answered by relief far larger than COVID's.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W188",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Government benefits make up about 19% of Americans' personal income now. Even during COVID, with stimulus checks, the share peaked at about 27% in a quarter, so 35% would need a crisis or AI-driven job collapse with an unprecedented relief response. Trump's promised $5,000 checks would reach only about 31% even if all paid in one quarter. Mass job losses from AI followed by very large government payments is what would most raise the chance.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}