{
  "question_id": "W205",
  "slug": "training-run-at-1e30-flop",
  "title": "A training run confirmed at 10^30 FLOP",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W205",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001849
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003346
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006336
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011304
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          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019214
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          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.030983
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072215
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102832
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.181783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.230876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.284715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.338361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.391292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.443032
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W205",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.050285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182537
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.231584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.285373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.391853
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W205",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Requires an Epoch point estimate (or explicit lower bound) >=1e30 FLOP for one identified run, published 2026-09-16 or later; totals that only cross 1e30 by summing pretraining and post-training do not count, and Epoch's default FP8 hardware-based accounting is assumed unless the precision is disclosed.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W205",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The largest training run Epoch has estimated so far uses about a thousandth of the target compute, and recent growth has been slower than the historical pace. Epoch's own trend projections and analyses of planned data centres point to roughly 1e29 to 3e29 by 2030–2031. Industry leaders' calls to slow frontier AI work against a much faster rise. The chance is near zero before 2029 and about one in five by the end of 2031. Runs of 1e28 or more by 2028 would raise this sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1899
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W205",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The largest training run Epoch AI has estimated so far, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra from September 2026, is about one-thousandth of the threshold. Growing three to five times a year, the largest runs need roughly five years to grow a thousand-fold, so a qualifying estimate most likely comes around or after the end of 2031. The biggest swing factor is whether labs commit giant new data-center capacity to single runs, or accept slowdown limits.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}