{
  "question_id": "W204",
  "slug": "training-run-at-1e29-flop",
  "title": "A training run confirmed at 10^29 FLOP",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W204",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7621
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W204",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0918
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4735
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5367
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7659
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W204",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Epoch AI's largest published estimate for a single training run is about 1e27 operations, for OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (September 2026). The threshold is 100 times higher. Past growth would get there around 2030, but slowing growth in computing hardware, safety-driven pacing, and Epoch's patchy coverage of secretive labs make it roughly a coin flip by the end of 2031. The biggest swing factor is how fast labs scale their next flagship runs.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.35
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.489
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W204",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The largest training run Epoch AI has estimated is OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, at about one hundredth of the threshold. Reaching the threshold needs roughly a hundredfold increase. At Epoch's recent pace of about threefold a year, that lands around 2030 or 2031, near the end of this window, so I put the chance at about even by late 2031 and close to zero before 2028. The biggest swing factor is whether the next flagship runs after Astra grow much faster than threefold a year, or whether labs slow down.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.495
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}