{
  "question_id": "W203",
  "slug": "training-run-at-1e28-flop",
  "title": "A training run confirmed at 10^28 FLOP",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W203",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8939
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W203",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6673
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8929
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.9004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.9064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.9115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.916
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W203",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only a numeric Epoch estimate >=1e28 (dataset Training compute field with Confident/Likely/Speculative, or an explicit Epoch-authored per-run estimate) first published on/after 2026-09-16 for a run whose training ends after 2026-09-16; late-Sept-2026 releases (Gemini 4 Argon, Opus 5.5, GPT-6 Sol) are treated as having finished training before the opening date.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.824
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.847
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W203",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Epoch's largest published estimate is about a tenth of the threshold: OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, at roughly ten to the 27th operations. Its record has grown about threefold a year. Data centers able to run a job ten times bigger within a few months mostly arrive in 2027–2028, so a qualifying estimate is most likely in late 2028 or 2029. The biggest swing factor is whether a lab discloses chip counts and duration for its next giant run.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.578
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.628
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.704
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.815
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.83
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.843
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}