{
  "question_id": "W289",
  "slug": "training-ban-holds-for-a-year",
  "title": "A training ban stays in force for a year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W289",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count capability-triggered training prohibitions even below the frontier, but exclude purpose-based offences such as making tools for criminal use unless the law prohibits crossing a stated compute or functional-capability boundary as such.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0742
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1965
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W289",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A qualifying capability cutoff must prohibit training models possessing the specified ability as such, rather than prohibit making or adapting tools for an intended criminal use; specialized-model capability bans may qualify, but I do not count the UK's purpose-defined CSA image-generator offence as such a cutoff.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1813
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4211
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W289",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an explicit prohibition or moratorium counts: a licensing regime counts as an authorisation route even if licences are temporarily unavailable, and a capability-defined 'superintelligence' ban counts only if the statute states a specified functional ability.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0617
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W289",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The United States, China, the EU and the UK have never banned training AI above a set size or ability level, and none plans to. The White House, the House Speaker, the UK government and Brussels have all rejected a pause. Any ban would also need to last a full year, so the earliest realistic yes is 2028. I put it near 5% by the end of 2031. A major AI disaster that prompted an emergency ban would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W289",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country or bloc among the four has a legally binding ban on training AI above a set size or capability. The US president openly rejects slowing down, and China, the EU and Britain favour testing and transparency over bans. Since any ban must also last a full year, early quarters sit near zero. Odds rise only slowly, to about 6% by late 2031. A disaster caused by AI, or a new US administration passing a ban, would raise my forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0641
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}