{
  "question_id": "W288",
  "slug": "training-ban-enters-force",
  "title": "A major power bans training above a threshold",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W288",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1714
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4811
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W288",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4446
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W288",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major government has ever legally banned training of powerful artificial intelligence, and today American and Chinese leaders openly reject slowing down, while Europe and Britain prefer talks and testing. Rising alarm and public support for a pause make action more plausible after the 2028 American election, so the chance climbs to about one in ten by 2031. A catastrophic incident that pushed Washington or Beijing to order a halt would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0909
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0969
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W288",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major government is close to legally banning the training of very advanced AI. The US, Chinese, British and EU governments all reject a ban; they favour voluntary pledges, testing or existing law. The bans proposed in Washington and London lack government support. The chance rises later, after a possible change in US leadership in 2029. A major AI disaster that pushes leaders to order an emergency halt is what would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0664
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0813
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1174
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}