{
  "question_id": "W229",
  "slug": "top-journal-allows-ai-authors",
  "title": "Nature, Science, or Cell allows AI systems as authors",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W229",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1885
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W229",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.372
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W229",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only an official Nature/Science/Cell (or applicable Springer Nature/AAAS/Elsevier-Cell Press) policy, author-instruction, or editorial announcement expressly permitting an AI system in the formal author list (including conditional or pilot permission); AI-contribution statements, acknowledgments, or one-off waivers do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W229",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Nature, Science and Cell all ban listing AI systems as authors, and each restated that ban during 2026. Most recently, in September, Nature's publisher classed it as \"not permitted\". Flagship journals change core authorship rules slowly, and the trend is to treat AI as a tool, so the chance is very low for now. It rises later only if AI becomes the main source of discoveries. The development that would most change this is a formal pilot or editorial from one of these journals.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W229",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Nature, Science and Cell all reaffirmed their bans on AI authors in 2026. In September their editors said publicly that an AI cannot be credited because it cannot be held accountable. Authorship rules rarely change quickly, so I put the chance of any of the three allowing AI authors by 2031 at about 6%. The development that would most change this is AI clearly doing most frontier research, which might lead a new editor to accept AI authors alongside an accountable human.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}