{
  "question_id": "W199",
  "slug": "top-1-percent-hold-45-percent-of-wealth",
  "title": "The top 1% hold 45% of US household wealth",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W199",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010402
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02398
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W199",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024421
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W199",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only DFA publications dated on/after 2026-09-16 reporting a top-1% (TopPt1+RemainingTop1) net-worth share >=45.0% for an observation quarter ending after 2026-09-16 (i.e., 2026Q3 or later) count; first such data (2026Q3) cannot appear before mid-December 2026.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W199",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a YES at under half a percent by the end of 2031. The Fed's latest figure shows the richest 1% holding about 32.5% of household wealth, a record but far below 45%. Getting there would take a rise more than twice the largest five-year increase since 1989. Even a tenfold stock rally would not get there under the Fed's current method. Only a drastic change in how the Fed measures wealth would make it plausible.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W199",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The richest 1% hold about 32.5% of US household wealth in the Fed's data, a record. Reaching 45% would take a 12.5-point jump within five years. That is more than the share has risen in 37 years, and more than twice its fastest five-year rise. Only an extreme, sustained stock-market surge that also concentrates wealth much further could get there, so the chance is about 1%. Repeated quarterly jumps of about a point would change this view most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}