{
  "question_id": "W198",
  "slug": "top-1-percent-hold-35-percent-of-wealth",
  "title": "The top 1% hold 35% of US household wealth",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W198",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0904
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2682
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3904
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W198",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W198",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Resolution uses the published 1-decimal FRED/Board top-1% share (TopPt1 + RemainingTop1) for quarters 2026Q3 onward, in any vintage, including later revisions such as SCF benchmark updates.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W198",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a published top-1% share of 35% or more by end-2031 at about 29%. The latest value is 32.5%. Getting there would take either another huge stock rally, with stocks beating other household wealth by about half, or upward revisions when the Fed re-benchmarks to its 2025 and 2028 wealth surveys. The biggest swing factor is the 2025 survey revision, likely published in December 2026 or March 2027.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.286
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W198",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Fed's latest figure puts the richest 1% at 32.5% of household wealth. Its new 2025 wealth survey shows the very top's share falling, and folding it in, probably in December, should cut the estimate to about 29–31%. Reaching 35% by 2031 would then need a very large stock boom plus a favourable 2028 survey; I put that at about 8%. A smaller-than-expected December revision would raise this the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}