{
  "question_id": "W285",
  "slug": "three-labs-stop-training-frontier-models",
  "title": "Three labs announce they have stopped training frontier models",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W285",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5273
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W285",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require an official confirmation covering every new-frontier-model training program at the developer; a pause described only for tool-use workloads or its most capable models is not counted unless the statement establishes that no other qualifying frontier training continues.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3526
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3785
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5399
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W285",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "OpenAI's 25-26 Sep 2026 pause of all training (and tool-use evaluation/inference) of its 'most capable models' is treated as likely (~80%) qualifying as one developer's announcement; pauses limited to RL environments, cyber evaluations, or single runs (e.g., Anthropic's Aug-Sep 2026 pause) are treated as not qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W285",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "So far only OpenAI has announced a broad pause, and even that covers only training that uses tools, so it may not count. Other labs have paused narrow activities or nothing. The White House, the competition with China and antitrust law all stand against a coordinated halt. I put the chance that three labs each announce a full halt at about 1% by end-2026, rising to about 18% by end-2031. A damaging rogue-AI incident followed by a government-ordered pause would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W285",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "So far no AI developer has clearly announced a full stop to training its frontier models. OpenAI's current pause covers only some training, Anthropic's earlier pause was narrow and has mostly ended, and Google, Meta, Elon Musk's AI company and the Chinese labs are still racing. Leaders favour slowing down, not stopping. A severe AI incident, or a government order that forces several labs to halt at once, would sharply raise the chance.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}