{
  "question_id": "W153",
  "slug": "third-country-creates-ai-free-zone",
  "title": "A third country creates a deregulated zone for AI or robotics",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W153",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A genuinely new statutory restoration after a legally effective repeal can establish a qualifying regime in an existing zone, but merely reaffirming an old regime or updating its rules does not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.46
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5222
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W153",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count a geographic extension only if a legally effective instrument newly places identified territory under the qualifying regime; operational launches, restatements, or descriptions of an already qualifying pre-opening regime do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.542
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6977
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W153",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts in-window laws or decrees (including a later in-window designation, boundary or eligibility instrument that completes qualification, or a legal territorial expansion of a DIFC/ADGM/OIFC-type zone) where national business law is off by default with a closed list of exceptions and general or tech businesses may operate; finance-only zones and regimes where national law applies by default with zone-rule priority do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.35
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W153",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Laws that switch off a country's normal business rules inside a defined zone, keeping only a short list of national laws, are rare. Azerbaijan passed one in 2018 and Oman in January 2026, both too early to count. Nothing qualifying has appeared since mid-September 2026, so I put the chance at about 2% by year-end, rising to roughly 45% by end-2031. Approval of the stalled Destiny zone on Nevis with sweeping exemptions would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.38
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.445
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W153",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Several countries created special legal zones in 2024–26, including Oman, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Bhutan. All were enacted before the question opened, and most still apply national law by default, so only a few models fit: Gulf-style financial centres like Oman's and Honduras-style charter cities. I estimate about a 4-in-10 chance over five years. Approval of the proposed \"Destiny\" zone on Nevis with a broad exemption from national law, or a new Gulf financial centre copying Oman's model, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.414
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}