{
  "question_id": "W171",
  "slug": "ten-year-yield-above-7-percent",
  "title": "The 10-year Treasury yield closes above 7%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W171",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09881
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14617
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.20398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25637
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28071
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W171",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142647
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.181631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.198817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.232113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.248239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.263274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.278009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.292449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.320468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.334058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.347377
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W171",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.163
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W171",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.3%, a 24-year high. It last closed above 7% in July 1996. Getting there would take another 1.7-point rise, which modern history shows is rare once yields are already at a multi-decade peak. Inflation expectations are still contained, and prediction markets give only about 7% odds of even touching 6% this year. A clear loss of control over inflation, or a US government debt crisis, would raise this forecast substantially.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W171",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.2%, its highest since 2002, after a war-driven oil shock and Federal Reserve rate hikes. Getting above 7% needs about 1.8 more points, a level last seen in 1996. Since 1990, further jumps that size from already-high levels have been rare, so I put the chance near 12% by the end of 2031. A clear break in long-term inflation expectations would raise the odds most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}