{
  "question_id": "W172",
  "slug": "ten-year-real-yield-above-5-percent",
  "title": "The 10-year real Treasury yield closes above 5%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W172",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029739
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.119782
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.132936
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W172",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.090204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.117226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134793
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168886
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W172",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The 2026-09-30 horizon is treated as already resolved NO: published observations from 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-30 maxed at 2.93%.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0573
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W172",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The 10-year inflation-protected Treasury yield is about 2.9%, its highest since 2008, after a sharp rise driven by the Iran war, oil, Fed rate increases, heavy borrowing and an AI investment boom. Clearing 5% would need another rise of about two percentage points to a level never recorded; the highest ever was about 4.4% in 2000. I put the chance at about 7.6% by 2031. A rise toward 4% next year would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0663
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0764
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W172",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The 10-year inflation-protected Treasury yield is about 2.8%, its highest since 2008 after a sharp 2026 bond selloff. Passing 5% would take another 2.2 points, a level not seen in America since the mid-1980s. That would probably need a severe inflation fight, a government debt crisis, or markets betting on an AI-driven growth explosion. I put it near 6% by the end of 2031. A sustained climb above 4% would raise this the most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0636
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}