{
  "question_id": "W200",
  "slug": "ten-trillionaires",
  "title": "Ten people are worth $1 trillion each",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W200",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00006
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.102729
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W200",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056822
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W200",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W200",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only Elon Musk is currently worth over $1 trillion on either list. The tenth-richest person has about $144 billion and would need to grow roughly sevenfold by the end of 2031. That is about three times the biggest five-year jump in 25 years of Forbes data, so it would take an extreme AI-driven stock boom. A broad, sustained surge that multiplied the big AI-linked companies' values several times over would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W200",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only Elon Musk is near a trillion dollars. The tenth-richest person, at about $150 billion, would need to grow almost sevenfold in about five years. In 25 years of Forbes rankings, that person's wealth has never even tripled in five years. I put the chance at about 1% by the end of 2031, and near zero before 2029. What would most change this: tech giants such as Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft each rising several-fold by 2029–30.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}