{
  "question_id": "W135",
  "slug": "ten-icbm-salvo-intercepted",
  "title": "The US intercepts a salvo of ten ICBM-class targets in a test",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W135",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007376
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037248
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W135",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033671
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W135",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only MDA- or DOT&E-authored publications (or authenticated copies) count; statements solely by the Golden Dome office, War Department leadership, or contractors do not, and each of the ≥10 targets must be explicitly ICBM-class and all intercepted in one engagement.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W135",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about one in two hundred by the end of 2031. The United States has never tested against more than one intercontinental missile target at a time. Current Missile Defense Agency budget plans move planned intercontinental-target tests to shorter-range targets, leaving about one such target a year. A ten-target salvo intercept test with a detailed public report is very unlikely. The thing that would most change this is a funded Golden Dome plan to buy many intercontinental-class targets for a large raid test.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W135",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at under half a percent through 2031. The United States has never flown more than one ICBM-class target in a single intercept test. The Missile Defense Agency is turning its few planned ICBM-target missions into shorter-range ones, and no published test through 2031 comes close to a ten-target salvo. The thing most likely to change this would be a published Golden Dome plan for a large live ICBM raid test, with the targets funded.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}