{
  "question_id": "W105",
  "slug": "tax-on-ai-or-robots",
  "title": "A G20 country taxes AI compute, tokens, or robots",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W105",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A newly enacted national customs duty whose operative provisions specifically identify robots as taxable imports qualifies, even if its purpose is trade protection rather than compensation for automation; general tariffs affecting robots only incidentally do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7424
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8039
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W105",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A new national customs duty or surcharge with operative provisions specifically identifying robots qualifies as a tax on importing robots, even if motivated by trade protection rather than job displacement; broad tariffs covering robots only incidentally do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5716
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6602
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.764
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W105",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Per the 27 Sep 2026 clarification, a US Section 232 (or similar) proclamation imposing tariffs whose operative text/annex names robots (e.g., HTSUS 8479.50/8428.70 'industrial robots') counts on its Federal Register publication date; broad retaliation lists that sweep in robot tariff lines only as part of whole headings are treated as unlikely to count; Korea-style compulsory AI levies (부담금) treated as national taxes.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.34
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.52
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.56
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.57
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.62
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.636
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.64
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W105",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The likeliest route is an American tariff on imported robots. A national-security review of robot and factory-machinery imports is past its legal deadlines, the administration is reportedly weighing tariffs, and this question counts tariffs that name robots. A dedicated tax on artificial intelligence looks less likely soon, though South Korea and a future Congress are possibilities. A presidential decision on robot tariffs, either way, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.52
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.567
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.601
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}