{
  "question_id": "W97",
  "slug": "strict-liability-for-frontier-models",
  "title": "The US or EU makes developers strictly liable for model harms",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W97",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3964
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4927
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W97",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4902
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W97",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Liability conditioned on knowledge, recklessness, a duty of care/reasonable safeguards, or breach of statutory obligations is treated as fault-based (not qualifying); strict product liability like AI LEAD Act §101(d), or removal of an immunity to such liability, qualifies; a Section 230 carve-out for AI outputs is given partial weight as possibly qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W97",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither Washington nor Brussels is close to making AI developers pay for harms regardless of fault. The US bills with real momentum still require proof of carelessness, the President opposes broad liability, and the European Commission has said it will not revive its AI liability plan for now. Chances rise mainly after 2029, if a new Democratic-controlled government acts. A major AI-caused disaster that pushes lawmakers toward automatic liability would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W97",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither Congress nor the European Union is close to passing such a law. US bills that would make AI companies pay for harm regardless of fault are stuck in committee, and the White House favours shielding developers. Europe dropped its AI liability plan in 2025, and officials say current rules suffice. Growing alarm over rogue AI incidents makes action plausible later, mostly after 2028. A formal European Commission proposal or a major AI-caused disaster would raise the odds most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}