{
  "question_id": "W296",
  "slug": "sp500-50-percent-drawdown",
  "title": "The S&P 500 closes 50% below its high",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W296",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006987
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012946
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020842
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.130701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143692
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W296",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09741
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15316
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W296",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Threshold is 50% of the running all-time official closing high (currently 7,798.99 on 2026-08-13, so ≤3,899.50 unless a higher close occurs first); only closes on trading days after 2026-09-16 count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W296",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The S&P 500 sits just below its record high, so it would have to roughly halve, to about 3,900, for this to happen. That has occurred only twice in nearly a century, around the Great Depression and in 2008, and such falls usually take more than a year. Very high valuations, rising interest rates and fears of an AI bubble add some risk, giving about 11% over five years. A deep recession hitting AI-driven profits would most raise this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0806
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1101
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W296",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The S&P 500 is at a record high, so it would have to fall by half, to about 3,900, which has happened only twice in nearly a century. Such falls take more than a year to develop, so near-term odds are tiny. Over five years, record valuations, high interest rates and AI-boom risks make one somewhat more likely than history alone suggests: about 13%. A sharp break in AI spending alongside a recession would raise this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1272
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}