{
  "question_id": "W152",
  "slug": "security-council-resolution-on-ai",
  "title": "The UN Security Council adopts a resolution on AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W152",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0934
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4576
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W152",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.514
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5568
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W152",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an adopted S/RES text in which more than half of the substantive operative paragraphs principally address AI counts; Council briefings, PRSTs (e.g., S/PRST/2026/3), informal expert groups, and broader counter-terrorism or emerging-technology resolutions with incidental AI paragraphs do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W152",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about one in seven by the end of 2031. The Security Council has never adopted even a formal statement on artificial intelligence, the United States rejects global rules for it, and Russia says it is outside the Council's job; either can veto. Odds rise after early 2029 if American policy changes or a disaster forces cooperation. A United States–China deal brought to the Council would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W152",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The Security Council has held many meetings on AI but has never adopted a text specifically about it. Russia says AI is outside the Council's job and recently had even one AI paragraph removed from a statement. The current US administration rejects any global oversight of AI. A resolution is very unlikely before 2029 and reaches only about 13% by 2031. A major cross-border AI disaster, or a new US administration seeking Council action, would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0863
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0946
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1276
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}