{
  "question_id": "W233",
  "slug": "science-academy-says-humans-cannot-follow",
  "title": "A science academy says humans can no longer follow a field's leading results",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
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      "question_id": "W233",
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    {
      "question_id": "W233",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.0037
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.00619
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        {
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        {
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        {
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.04814
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05575
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06378
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0722
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08102
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09021
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09976
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10966
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1199
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13046
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W233",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only an academy's own finding that the expert community (including teams, and even with available tools such as Lean or AI explanations) is currently unable to verify or understand a named field's frontier results; statements about volume/pace, isolated not-yet-understood results, or warnings do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W233",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "These academies have never said human experts can no longer check or understand a field's leading results. They are cautious, and their recent work stresses that human understanding is still essential. AI-solved maths problems have caused alarm, but computer-checked proofs let people confirm correctness. Mathematicians describe the problem as understanding lagging behind, which the question excludes. The development that would most raise this forecast is AI clearly surpassing humans across a whole field, followed by an academy report saying experts cannot follow it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.073
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
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          "p_yes": 0.107
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
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          "p_yes": 0.119
        },
        {
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          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W233",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "AI systems are now producing major maths proofs that mathematicians say nobody yet understands. Even so, the three academies tend to describe this as a risk or a challenge, not to declare that experts can no longer follow a field. Tools that check proofs by computer and AI-written explanations also weaken the case. I put the chance near 1% this year, rising to about 17% by 2031. What would most change this: a Royal Society report saying plainly that humans cannot understand a field's newest results.",
      "ambiguities": [],
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  "declined": []
}