{
  "question_id": "W278",
  "slug": "right-to-a-human-doctor-or-teacher",
  "title": "A law guarantees a right to a human doctor or teacher",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W278",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4832
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.605
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6584
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6823
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W278",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0854
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2887
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3715
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6747
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6991
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W278",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A national statute that expressly prohibits substituting human teachers/clinicians with AI for the core delivery of instruction or care (e.g., Brazil PL 3003/2025-type) is treated as a qualifying mandatory duty to provide human-delivered service; principle-style clauses that AI only assists while decisions/teaching role remain with professionals (Italy Art. 7(5)-type) are treated as not qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W278",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major economy has yet passed a national law guaranteeing patients a human clinician or students a human teacher instead of artificial intelligence; such rules exist only in some American states. The most concrete candidate is a Brazilian bill banning the replacement of teachers by artificial intelligence. It has cleared one of three committees, and bills at that stage rarely become law. Its approval by Brazil's Congress would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W278",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No national government or the European Union has yet passed a law guaranteeing a human doctor or teacher instead of AI. Similar laws exist only in US states such as California, and the closest national proposals, mainly in Brazil, are still early in the legislative process. Over five years, public demand and the spread of such laws from US states make one plausible, but not likely. Brazil passing its ban on replacing teachers with AI would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}