{
  "question_id": "W235",
  "slug": "report-finds-ai-has-not-sped-discovery",
  "title": "A major report finds AI has not sped up scientific discovery",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W235",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0672
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0877
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1078
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1274
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          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1466
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1637
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1804
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1968
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2129
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2262
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2976
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W235",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0968
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2871
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3104
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W235",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Count only a named body's own retrospective statement in a final report (e.g., 'no signs/no measurable increase attributable to AI') about aggregate science-wide discovery or system-wide new drug approvals, supported by data for a period ending after 2026-09-16; 'too early/evidence limited' statements and category-level claims like 'no AI-discovered drug approved yet' do not by themselves qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W235",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "These three bodies have never published a finding that AI failed to speed up scientific discovery or new drug approvals. Their reports so far are hopeful about AI and hedge with \"too early to tell\" language, which does not count here. A qualifying report would also need data from after September 2026. The biggest change would be an OECD report, such as its 2027 science outlook, stating outright that AI has produced no measurable speed-up.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W235",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 6% over five years, and near zero this year. These three bodies have so far described AI's potential for science without judging its overall effect, and they usually say \"too early to tell\", which does not count here. Meanwhile, AI's research successes make a flat \"no effect\" finding less likely. The biggest change would be an OECD flagship report, such as its 2027 science outlook, stating that AI has not measurably increased discoveries or drug approvals.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
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        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0503
        },
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          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0531
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          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}