{
  "question_id": "W306",
  "slug": "remote-labor-index-90-percent",
  "title": "An AI automates 90% of the Remote Labor Index",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W306",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-09",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best AI systems now complete about 21% of the benchmark's real freelance projects at professional quality, up from 2.5% a year ago. If that pace holds, 90% could come around 2028–2029. But scores on human-graded tests often stall in the 80s, and benchmarks are often retired or replaced before reaching such levels. A jump past 50% by mid-2027 would raise this forecast sharply; an announcement that the benchmark is being retired or replaced would lower it.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.608
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.615
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W306",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-09",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best AI agent now completes about 21% of the benchmark's real freelance projects, up from 2.5% a year ago. If that pace holds, 90% could come around 2028–2029. But the last stretch is usually slowest, human judges are strict, and Scale has to keep running the benchmark. The biggest swing factor is whether the next model generation jumps above 50% in 2027, or Scale retires the benchmark or switches to AI judges.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.619
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}