{
  "question_id": "W305",
  "slug": "remote-labor-index-50-percent",
  "title": "An AI automates 50% of the Remote Labor Index",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W305",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-08",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best AI score on this benchmark of real paid freelance projects rose from 2.5% to about 21% in the past year. Extending that trend and general capability gains points to 50% most likely around mid-to-late 2027. Lab slowdowns, the large share of hard video and 3D work, and the chance the benchmark stops being updated could push it later. The development that would most change this forecast is how the next generation of frontier models scores in early 2027.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.555
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.9
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.91
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.919
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.925
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W305",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-08",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The best AI on Scale's remote-work benchmark now completes about 21% of real paid freelance projects, up from 2.5% a year ago. If that pace holds, 50% is most likely reached during 2027. But gains since June have been slower, and AI companies are deliberately slowing releases. What would most change this forecast is the score of Anthropic's next major model, expected within weeks.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.68
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.74
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.78
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.83
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.87
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.88
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.882
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.884
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.887
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}