{
  "question_id": "W290",
  "slug": "regulator-halts-a-training-run",
  "title": "A regulator halts a lab's training run or deployment",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W290",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Imposing a new licensing requirement or issuing a general withdrawal order does not itself qualify: there must be an operative refusal, revocation, or suspension of an identifiable permission; capability-specific export-licence decisions can qualify if all other conditions are met.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0734
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2562
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4779
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6282
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W290",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count refusal of a mandatory assessment or registration only when its acceptance is a legal prerequisite, and do not treat a general service-withdrawal order as revocation of an identifiable authorisation merely because it stops access.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1301
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2799
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3974
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4388
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W290",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "US export-control 'is-informed' directives that impose a licence requirement and force a frontier model offline in the US are treated as only possibly qualifying (discounted for the 'identifiable licence' wording and the need for regulator-published grounds); government-requested or voluntary delays and the pre-opening June 2026 Mythos/Fable episode are treated as not qualifying.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W290",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government named here yet uses a licence system publicly to stop a leading artificial intelligence model: the United States relies on voluntary reviews, and China rarely publishes refusals. A June 2026 American order that briefly took Anthropic's newest models offline predates this question and probably would not count. I estimate about 17% by the end of 2031. A new American law requiring government approval before release would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W290",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Governments are stepping in more often on advanced artificial intelligence; this summer the United States forced Anthropic to pull two models for 19 days using export rules. But this question needs a formal refusal or cancellation of a legally required permit, with official safety reasons, and few such permit systems exist yet. I estimate about 2% by end-2026, rising to about 26% by end-2031. A law letting officials approve or block model releases would raise this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}