{
  "question_id": "W186",
  "slug": "recent-graduate-unemployment-10-percent",
  "title": "Recent-graduate unemployment reaches 10%",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W186",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.20333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22484
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24655
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33435
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W186",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08762
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21782
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.30897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.35449
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W186",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Eligible observations are the NY Fed's monthly 3-month-moving-average 'Recent graduates' values labeled September 2026 or later (first published in the ~November 2026 release); each observation is credited to the quarter-end following its quarterly publication.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.398
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W186",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Unemployment among recent college graduates is about 5.6%. Reaching 10% would need a jump of roughly 75%, which in the past has happened only in deep downturns like 2008 or the 2020 pandemic. I put the chance at about 30% by the end of 2031. Most of that comes from the risk of a serious recession, with a little more from AI cutting entry-level jobs. A recession starting in 2027, especially one hitting technology or office work, would raise this sharply.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.263
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.311
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W186",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The New York Fed's unemployment rate for recent college graduates is about 5.7% and has topped 10% only once, during the 2020 pandemic. Because young graduates now fare worse relative to other workers than in the past, a moderately deep recession lifting overall unemployment to about 7.5% would likely push it past 10%. I estimate about a 30% chance by late 2031. A recession beginning in 2027 would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.296
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}