{
  "question_id": "W264",
  "slug": "quarter-of-americans-have-ai-friend-or-partner",
  "title": "A quarter of Americans call an AI a close friend or partner",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W264",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00649
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15885
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18408
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23862
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26679
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W264",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0735
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0874
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1768
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W264",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Requires a current-tense 'close/best friend' or romantic-partner item for all US adults with fieldwork ending after 2026-09-16; 'ever had', plain 'friend'/'companion', usage-for-companionship, and subgroup items do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0322
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W264",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Surveys today find only about 4% of American adults use AI chatbots for companionship, and roughly 8% call one \"a friend.\" Saying an AI is a close friend or romantic partner is rarer still and carries stigma. Reaching one in four adults by 2031 would need roughly a tenfold rise while public feeling about AI is souring, so I put the chance at about 2%. A major survey showing fast growth in close bonds with AI would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W264",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Today only about 2 to 5 percent of American adults would likely say an AI is a close friend or partner. Pew's latest survey finds just 4 percent use chatbots for companionship. Reaching 25 percent by 2031 would need sustained growth of more than half each year, plus Pew, Gallup or the General Social Survey asking the right question. The development that would most change this is a major survey showing close friendships with AI already above 10 percent.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}