{
  "question_id": "W277",
  "slug": "public-barred-from-capable-models",
  "title": "A G20 government bars the public from the most capable models",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W277",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4834
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5289
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5681
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5853
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6019
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W277",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5336
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W277",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an officially published binding measure that makes a publicly-defined capability class of models unavailable to the unauthorized public counts; temporary 'trusted-partners-first' staged releases and codified trusted-access tiers where the public can still use a safeguarded version of the same model are treated as excluded pre-release review / not meeting condition 3.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W277",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major government has a binding rule reserving the most powerful AI models for licensed users, and none is pending. The U.S. relies on voluntary deals and export controls on foreigners, China on informal controls over providers, and the EU on non-binding plans. Fast-rising AI risks make such a rule plausible within five years, most likely from China or a later U.S. law. A formal rule limiting top hacking-capable models to approved organizations would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W277",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major government has made it illegal for ordinary people to use the most powerful artificial intelligence models while letting licensed users keep access. Washington already limits early access informally, but calls this voluntary, and most proposed laws target developers or pre-release testing, which do not count. Such a rule is plausible but unlikely within five years. An American or Chinese law reserving top-tier models for approved users would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}