{
  "question_id": "W183",
  "slug": "programmer-employment-down-75-percent",
  "title": "Programmer and developer employment 75% below May 2024",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W183",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The post-opening reference-period requirement makes May 2027 the first eligible annual observation, normally published in spring 2028; later corrections to pre-opening reference periods remain ineligible.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015392
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015539
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022923
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034642
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W183",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0020192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045639
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0165264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0166248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0167231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0255726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0411634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0413552
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W183",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The government's count of programmers and software developers would have to fall from about 1.78 million to about 441,000 by its spring 2031 report. No large occupation has ever shrunk that fast in this survey. Current data show these jobs flat or growing, and the survey pools three years of responses, so even a real collapse would show up late. What would most change this is evidence of mass layoffs of developers across the economy in 2027–2028 because of AI.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W183",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The government's count of programmers and software developers would have to fall by three quarters, from about 1.76 million to about 441,000. The newest figures show a small rise, and no large occupation has ever fallen remotely that fast. The survey also blends three years of responses, so even a sudden collapse would show up slowly. Evidence of mass developer layoffs across the whole economy during 2027–2028 would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}