{
  "question_id": "W182",
  "slug": "programmer-employment-down-50-percent",
  "title": "Programmer and developer employment 50% below May 2024",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W182",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016673
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01697
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032891
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122032
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W182",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06711
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10132
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W182",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The May 2026 OEWS estimates (expected ~spring 2027) do not qualify because their reference period ends before 2026-09-16, so the first qualifying release is the May 2027 estimates (~spring 2028); threshold = 0.5 × (109,870 + 1,654,440) = 882,155.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W182",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "For this to resolve yes, U.S. programmer and software developer jobs in the government's annual occupational survey would have to halve, to about 882,000. The latest count, for May 2025, was 1.78 million, slightly above the May 2024 baseline. No large occupation has ever halved within six years in this survey, and the survey pools three years of data, which slows any decline. Only the releases from 2028 to 2031 count. The thing that would most change my view is a sudden, economy-wide collapse in tech-industry employment caused by AI.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}