{
  "question_id": "W181",
  "slug": "programmer-employment-down-25-percent",
  "title": "Programmer and developer employment 25% below May 2024",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W181",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02386
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04881
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22166
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W181",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.12744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23194
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W181",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "May 2026 OEWS estimates (published ~spring 2027) do not qualify because their May reference period ended before the 2026-09-16 opening; qualifying releases are the May 2027-May 2030 estimates (published ~spring 2028-2031); B = 109,870 + 1,654,440 = 1,764,310 from the unrevised May 2024 national estimates, threshold 1,323,232.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0472
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W181",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Combined programmer and software developer employment in the latest federal survey (May 2025) is slightly above the May 2024 level. Meeting the threshold needs a roughly 26% fall. Because the survey averages three years of responses, real employment would have to collapse even further by 2030. Large occupations almost never shrink that fast, and 2026 data show steady employment and rising postings. A sudden wave of artificial-intelligence-driven cuts in engineering teams during 2027–28 would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W181",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The latest government count (May 2025) puts programmers and software developers combined slightly above the May 2024 baseline. A 25% drop would mean losing about 457,000 jobs. Only counts for May 2027 or later qualify, and the first of those comes out in spring 2028. No occupation this large has shrunk that fast in this survey's history, and developer hiring is rising. A sudden wave of AI-driven developer layoffs in 2027–2029 would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}