{
  "question_id": "W178",
  "slug": "prime-age-employment-below-50-percent",
  "title": "Prime-age employment falls below 50% in an OECD country",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W178",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006981
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051329
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W178",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002797
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049727
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W178",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an officially published national, all-sexes 25–54 employment rate counts; headline 15+ rates below 50% (e.g., TurkStat's 48.5% for Q2 2026) and subgroup rates do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W178",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No OECD country has ever reported a prime-age (25 to 54) employment rate below 50%. The lowest today is Türkiye at about 63%. Every other member is at 74% or higher. Getting below 50% would take a shock several times worse than the pandemic's peak job losses, so I put the chance at about 1.6% by the end of 2031. A severe new pandemic with strict lockdowns, or a sudden AI-driven collapse in employment, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W178",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Even the lowest OECD country, Türkiye, has about 63% of 25-to-54-year-olds in work, and every other member is above 74%. No member has ever reported below 50%. Getting there would take a collapse much worse than COVID, such as a far deadlier pandemic, a war, or an unprecedented wave of AI job losses. That puts the chance at about 2% by 2031. The development that would most change this is a sharp, sustained fall in employment in Türkiye or Latin America.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}