{
  "question_id": "W265",
  "slug": "platform-requires-proof-of-personhood",
  "title": "A major platform requires proof of personhood or bans AI content",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W265",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1935
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3488
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W265",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "The audience threshold may include logged-out users, but every permitted account must satisfy the verification requirement; behavioral age inference alone is not a personhood credential.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1829
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3327
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W265",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Age-assurance or national mandates count only if every permitted method is an ID/biometric/personhood check applied to all accounts worldwide with loss of logged-in access after a published transition; jurisdiction-limited, restriction-only, phone-based, or partial-AI-ban regimes (e.g., Wikipedia's text-only ban with translation/copyedit exceptions) are treated as NO.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0471
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W265",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No large platform requires every user worldwide to prove they are human, and none bans all AI-generated content. Reddit, X, Discord and Roblox check only suspicious accounts, certain countries or age groups, or just limit features, and none of that counts. Platforms lose users when they add friction, so I put this at about 4% by 2031. The development that would most change it is a big platform, or a new humans-only network with 100 million users, making verification mandatory for all accounts.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W265",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 4% by the end of 2031. No platform with 100 million monthly users requires every account to pass an ID or face check, or bans all AI content. Recent moves by Reddit, X, Facebook, Roblox and Tinder are optional, limited to suspicious accounts or certain countries, or happen on smaller apps, all of which the question excludes. The development that would most change this is a new human-only network, such as OpenAI's rumored one, reaching that size.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0404
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}